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ASTIN Webinar: Global Sensitivity Analysis of Predictive Models, Shapley Effects and Their Application to Rating Systems

 
Join us in our upcoming webinar on: Global Sensitivity Analysis of Predictive Models: Shapley Effects and Their Applications in Rating Systems
REGISTER HERE
DATE: 24 October  2024
TIME: 10:00am EDT |16:00 pm CEST
ABSTRACT
The ratemaking process is a key issue in insurance pricing. It consists in pooling together policyholders with similar risk profiles into rating classes and assigning the same premium for policyholders in the same class. In actuarial practice, rating systems are typically not based on all risk factors but rather only some of factors are selected to construct the rating classes. The objective of this presentation is to investigate the selection of risk factors in order to construct rating classes that exhibit maximum internal homogeneity. For this selection, we adopt the Shapley effects from global sensitivity analysis.

We present these sensitivity indices for the interpretability of predictive models and we apply them to construct rating classes. We connect these importance measures to the intra-class variability and heterogeneity of the rating classes. To verify the appropriateness of this procedure, we introduce a measure of heterogeneity specifically designed to compare rating systems with a different number of classes. Using a well-known car insurance dataset, we show that the rating system constructed with the Shapley effects is the one minimizing this heterogeneity measure.
ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Giovanni Rabitti | Speaker
Giovanni Rabitti is Assistant Professor in the Department of Actuarial Mathematics and Statistics at the Heriot-Watt University. His primary research interests include sensitivity analysis of complex models and the development of innovative financial instruments for risk reduction. He has received several awards and grants for his research, including funding from the Alan Turing Institute and the Society of Actuaries. He is a fully qualified Actuary.

Brian Fannin | Moderator
Brian Fannin has been an actuary for over 20 years. The data lack sufficient credibility for him to give a more precise estimate. Brian has been an Associate of the CAS since 2002 and a Certified Specialist in Predictive Analytics (CSPA) since 2017. He has worked in a variety of roles in commercial insurance, both primary and excess, here in the US as well as Europe, London and Asia. He has taught various workshops and seminars on R and is the author of the book "R for Actuaries and Data Scientists", published by Actex. He currently works for Milliman, supporting their Arius loss reserving software.

REGISTER HERE
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